Apple’s camera supply chain will enter a two-year high-speed growth cycle thanks to iPhone 15’s adoption of a high-ASP periscope design
Here are my latest surveys and predictions for iPhone’s adoption of periscope design:
1. Conclusion: The main beneficiaries of iPhone’s adoption of periscope are:
(1) LG Innotek (VCM & CCM): the supplier of high-ASP CCM and vertical integration thanks to the entry into VCM/sensor shift supply.
(2) Cowell (CCM): the supplier for high-ASP CCM, with a large room for future growth due to a low base.
(3) Jahwa (VCM): iPhone’s new supplier, benefiting from high-ASP VCM/sensor shift.
(4) Largan (Lens): Likely to be the sole or main supplier of high-ASP lens modules in the initial stage thanks to its technical advantages.
(5) Lante Optics (prism): Likely to be the sole or main supplier of high-ASP prism in the initial stage thanks to its technical advantages.
2. The telephoto camera of iPhone will use a periscope design from 2023. The models that adopt a periscope are:
(1) 2H23 new iPhone: iPhone 15 Pro Max.
(2) 2H24 new iPhone: iPhone 16 Pro Max and iPhone 16 Pro.
(3) The main specifications of the periscope for iPhone 15 and iPhone 16 are similar, including 1/3" 12MP, f/2.8, sensor-shift support, and 5–6x optical zoom.
3. The cost of components still depends on the yield rate before mass production. Based on the cost structure of the existing periscope, thanks to iPhone 15 Pro Max’s adoption of the periscope, the YoY growth of component’s total output value for 2H23 new iPhone (iPhone 15 series) rear camera, including CIS, VCM, lens, and CCM, will increase by 5–10%, 20–25%, 65–70%, and 20–25%, respectively.
4. Benefiting from more iPhone 16 Pro models adopting the periscope and other rear camera upgrades, the total output value of the rear camera components of the 2H24 new iPhone (iPhone 16 series), including CIS, VCM, lens, and CCM, will increase by 15–20%, 15–20%, 40–45%, and 15–20% YoY, respectively.
5. Apple/iPhone will adopt the prism for the first time, so it is the spotlight in the periscope supply chain. The iPhone prism output value’s YoY growth will reach 150–200% in 2024. Each periscope camera uses two prisms, which reflect light and create a longer light path for optical zoom.
6. Among all components, lens specifications, and business models have changed the most, and output value has grown the most. The complete periscope lens module includes a high-ASP 1G2P lens, two high-ASP prisms, and a lens barrel. The high-ASP materials are keys to boosting the output value. Apple’s lens supplier will provide more complicated assembly services for the first time, so Largan and Genius are expanding their production capacity in Taichung and Xiamen to meet this order.
(1) The ASP of G (glass lens) is significantly higher than that of P (plastic lens).
(2) The lens supplier has to assemble the lens with the high-ASP prisms and ship it to CCM.
(3) Periscope lens module ASP may reach $10–15 (USD) (vs. ASP of existing high-end 7P lens is about $1.5–2).
7. The ASP of CCM is very high. If the initial yield is not good, the ASP may even be as high as $60–70 (USD) or more. As LG Innotek becomes a VCM/sensor shift supplier, it can increase assembly yield and profit through vertical integration. If the periscope CCM yield of the iPhone 15 Pro Max can be significantly improved during the shipment cycle, it will greatly raise the likelihood of Cowell becoming the iPhone 16 periscope CCM supplier and benefit markedly from this high-ASP order.
8. iPhone 15 Pro Max periscope supply chain:
(1) CIS: Sony
(2) Lens: Largan (1st or sole), Genius (2nd)
(3) Prism: Lante Optics (1st or sole), Crystal-Optech (2nd)
(4) VCM: LG Innotek (1st), Jahwa (2nd)
(5) CCM: LG Innotek
9. iPhone 16 Pro Max & iPhone 16 Pro periscope supply chain:
(1) CIS: Sony
(2) Lens: Largan (1st), Genius (2nd)
(3) Prism: Lante Optics (1st), Crystal-Optech (2nd)
(4) VCM: LG Innotek (1st), Jahwa (2nd)
(5) CCM: LG Innotek (1st), Cowell (2nd)
10. Part of the market consensus expects Sunny Optical to benefit from the iPhone’s adoption of periscopes. However, my survey indicates Sunny Optical lacks visibility for lens or CCM orders.
11. If the market feedback on iPhone using periscope is good, Chinese Android brands may follow it, and potential suppliers include Semco, Largan, Sunny Optical, Lantech Optical, and Crystal-Optech.
Apple相機供應鏈將因iPhone 15採用高單價潛望鏡設計而進入連續兩年高速成長週期
以下是我對iPhone採用潛望鏡設計的最新調查與預測：
1. 結論：iPhone採用潛望鏡的主要受益者為：
(1) LG Innotek (VCM & CCM)：高單價CCM供應商與受益於進入VCM/Sensor shift供應的垂直整合。
(2) 高偉電子 (CCM)：高單價CCM供應商，因基期低故未來成長空間大。
(3) Jahwa (VCM)：iPhone新供應商，受益於高單價VCM (支援Sensor shift)。
(4) 大立光 (鏡頭)：因技術優勢故為初期高單價鏡頭模組獨家或主要供應商。
(5) 藍特光學 (稜鏡)：因技術優勢故為初期高單價稜鏡獨家或主要供應商。
2. iPhone的長焦相機將自2023年開始採用潛望鏡設計，採用潛望鏡機種為：
(1) 2H23新款iPhone：iPhone 15 Pro Max。
(2) 2H24新款iPhone：iPhone 16 Pro Max與iPhone 16 Pro。
(3) iPhone 15與iPhone 16潛望鏡主要規格相似，包括：1/3" 12MP、f/2.8、支援Sensor shift與5–6x光學變焦。
3. 目前零組件成本仍需視量產前良率而定，若以既有潛望鏡成本為基礎估算，受益於iPhone 15 Pro Max採用潛望鏡，2H23新款iPhone (iPhone 15系列) 後置相機各零組件的總產值，包括CIS、VCM、鏡頭與CCM，將分別YoY成長5–10%、20–25%、65–70%與20–25%。
4. 受益於更多iPhone 16 Pro機種採用潛望鏡與其他後置相機升級，2H24新款iPhone (iPhone 16系列) 後置相機各零組件的總產值，包括CIS、VCM、鏡頭與CCM，將分別YoY成長15–20%、15–20%、40–45%與15–20%。
5. 稜鏡為Apple/iPhone首次採用的零組件，是潛望鏡供應鏈中最值得關注的焦點。預估iPhone稜鏡產值在2024年的YoY成長顯著達約150–200%。每個潛望鏡相機採用2片稜鏡，稜鏡用於反射光並創造更長的光線路徑，藉此實現光學變焦。
6. 所有零組件中，鏡頭的規格與商業模式改變最大，產值成長也最顯著。完整的潛望鏡鏡頭模組包含高單價的1G2P鏡頭、2片高單價的稜鏡與鏡筒，高單價物料是推升產值的關鍵。Apple的鏡頭供應商將首次提供較複雜的組裝服務，故大立光與玉晶光分別在台中與廈門擴產以因應此訂單。
(1) G (玻璃鏡片) 單價顯著高於P (塑膠鏡片)。
(2) 鏡頭供應商須將鏡頭與高單價的稜鏡組裝後出貨至CCM。
(3) 潛望鏡的鏡頭模組ASP可能為$10–15 (USD) (vs. 既有高階7P鏡頭ASP約$1.5–2)。
7. CCM單價非常高。若初期良率不佳，單價甚至有可能高達$60–70 (USD) 以上。LG Innotek因成為VCM/Sensor shift供應商故可望透過垂直整合提升組裝良率與利潤。若iPhone 15 Pro Max的潛望鏡CCM良率在出貨週期內能顯著改善，則高偉電子成為iPhone 16潛望鏡CCM供應商的機率將大增並顯著受益於此高單價訂單。
8. iPhone 15 Pro Max潛望鏡供應鏈：
(1) CIS：Sony
(2) 鏡頭：大立光 (主要或獨家)、玉晶光 (次供)
(3) 稜鏡：藍特光學 (主要或獨家)、水晶光電 (次供)
(4) VCM：LG Innotek (主要)、Jahwa (次供)
(5) CCM：LG Innotek
9. iPhone 16 Pro Max & iPhone 16 Pro潛望鏡供應鏈
(1) CIS：Sony
(2) 鏡頭：大立光 (主要)、玉晶光 (次供)
(3) 稜鏡：藍特光學 (主要)、水晶光電 (次供)
(4) VCM：LG Innotek (主要)、Jahwa (次供)
(5) CCM：LG Innotek (主要)、高偉電子 (次供)
10. 市場部分共識期待舜宇光學將受益於iPhone採用潛望鏡，然而我的調查指出舜宇光學目前仍沒有鏡頭或CCM訂單的能見度。
11. 若iPhone採用潛望鏡的市場反饋不錯，則中國Android品牌可能會跟進，潛在供應商包括Semco、大立光、舜宇光學、藍特光學與水晶光電。
